Geospatial and temporal simulation of deforestation in the district of Nueva Requena, Ucayali

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Resumen

The main objective of this research is to determine the deforestation rate in the Nueva Requena district (Peru), through the EGO Dynamics geospatial simulation model by cellular automata; taking into account the following variables: distance to populated places, distance to roads, distance to water surfaces, forest concessions, percentage slope, and digital elevation model. For this purpose, in the first place, we proceeded to calculate the ranges to categorize continuous variables through the geostatistical method of the evidence weights, in order to obtain the transition probabilities and, later, the weights of the variables that have greater influence on changes. Second, the correlation calculation of the variables was performed, in order to verify that the variables entered into the model are spatially independent. Third, a simulation prior to 2020 was carried out to compare it with the real map of 2020, in order to show whether the model can predict changes. The latter, obtaining an accuracy of 75%. Fourth, a simulation of deforestation in 2030 in the Nueva Requena district (Peru) was carried out. Finally, it was determined that for the period 2020 to 2030, 35 112.24 ha were deforested with a deforestation rate of 3.08% / year.

Lecturas por mes y tendencia

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Palabras clave

deforestationEGO dynamicscellular automataevidence weightsvalidationdeforestaciónDinámica EGOautómatas celularespesos de evidenciavalidación